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恐惧导致的僵化:需求不确定性下的价格刚性与离散定价

Paralyzed by Fear: Rigid and Discrete Pricing Under Demand Uncertainty
Econometrica · 2020 · Cosmin Ilut、Rosen Valchev、Nicolas Vincent

中文摘要

我们提出了一种基于企业对其竞争环境存在奈特不确定性(Knightian uncertainty)的价格刚性新理论。该不确定性具有两层关键含义。第一,企业根据过去对销售量的观察来了解其需求函数的形状。这种学习导致预期利润函数在先前观察到的价格处出现折点,使得这些价格既具有粘性又更有可能再次出现。第二,关于总体通胀与行业层面通胀之间关系的不确定性产生了名义刚性。我们以解析方式证明了主要洞见,并量化了该机制的影响。我们估计的量化模型与一系列通常难以同时匹配的微观层面定价事实相一致。它还意味着货币非中性比在标准模型中显著更具持久性,从而使其能够从名义冲击中产生巨大的实际效应。

Abstract

We propose a new theory of price rigidity based on firms' Knightian uncertainty about their competitive environment. This uncertainty has two key implications. First, firms learn about the shape of their demand function from past observations of quantities sold. This learning gives rise to kinks in the expected profit function at previously observed prices, making those prices both sticky and more likely to reoccur. Second, uncertainty about the relationship between aggregate and industry‐level inflation generates nominal rigidity. We prove the main insights analytically and quantify the effects of our mechanism. Our estimated quantitative model is consistent with a wide range of micro‐level pricing facts that are typically challenging to match jointly. It also implies significantly more persistent monetary non‐neutrality than in standard models, allowing it to generate large real effects from nominal shocks.
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