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疫情对公立学校、在家上学与私立学校需求的影响

The Pandemic’s effect on demand for public schools, homeschooling, and private schools
Journal of Public Economics · 2022 · Tareena Musaddiq、Kevin Stange、Andrew Bacher-Hicks、Joshua Goodman

中文摘要

Covid-19疫情严重扰乱了美国公立学校的运转,可能改变了在家上学与私立学校等替代选项的相对吸引力。本文利用密歇根州的学生层面纵向行政数据以及具有全国代表性的“人口普查家庭脉搏调查”数据,考察了家庭在学校部门选择上的变化。2020年秋季公立学校入学人数明显下降,密歇根州有3%的学生和10%的幼儿园儿童选择了其他选项。这一下降主要来自有小学阶段子女的家庭中在家上学比例的显著跃升。与家长对教学模式的异质性偏好相一致,在学校提供线下授课的地方,在家上学增加更多;而在授课为远程的地方,私立学校入学增加更多。幼儿园入学下降在低收入和黑人家庭中最为明显,而其他年级的下降则在较高收入和白人家庭中最为明显,凸显了学生与公立学校既有联系程度上的重要异质性。本文结果揭示了家庭如何做出就学决策,并意味着公立学校可能面临以入学人数下降与学生群体构成变化为形式的较长期扰动。

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic drastically disrupted the functioning of U.S. public schools, potentially changing the relative appeal of alternatives such as homeschooling and private schools. We study changes in families’ choices of school sector using longitudinal student-level administrative data from Michigan and nationally representative data from the Census Household Pulse Survey. Public school enrollment declined noticeably in fall 2020, with 3 percent of Michigan students and 10 percent of kindergartners using other options. Most of this came from homeschooling rates jumping substantially among families with children in elementary school. Consistent with heterogeneous parental preferences for instructional mode, homeschooling increased more where schools provided in-person instruction while private schooling increased more where instruction was remote. Kindergarten declines were highest among low income and Black families while declines in other grades were highest among higher income and White families, highlighting important heterogeneity by students’ existing attachment to public schools. Our results shed light on how families make schooling decisions and imply potential longer-run disruptions to public schools in the form of decreased enrollment and changed composition of the student body.
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