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应税收入弹性估计量的质量

The quality of the estimators of the ETI
Journal of Public Economics · 2022 · Thomas Aronsson、Katharina Jenderny、Gauthier Lanot

中文摘要

应税收入弹性(ETI)是税制政策设计的核心统计量。本文的一个目的是运用蒙特卡洛模拟方法,评估文献中常用估计量——工具变量回归估计量与聚束估计量——的偏误与精度,从而为支持或反对使用这些方法提供论据。另一个目的是提出间接推断估计,以改进ETI测量的质量。工具变量回归估计量在一定条件下偏误表现良好,但其波动性大于聚束估计量。我们还发现,聚束估计量可能存在向下偏误。基于间接推断原理的估计量实际上无偏,且比其他估计量更为精确。

Abstract

The elasticity of taxable income (ETI) is a central statistic for tax policy design. One purpose of the present paper is to use Monte Carlo simulation techniques to assess the bias and precision of the prevalent estimators in the literature, the IV-regression estimator and the bunching estimator. Thereby, we aim to provide arguments in favor of, or against, using these methods. Another is to suggest indirect inference estimation to improve the quality of the measurement of the ETI. While IV-regression estimators perform well in terms of bias under certain conditions, they are more variable than bunching estimators. We also find that bunching estimators can be biased downward. The estimators based on indirect inference principles are practically unbiased and more precise than the other estimators.
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