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识别对税制改革的行为反应:新见解与新方法

Identifying behavioral responses to tax reforms: New insights and a new approach
Journal of Public Economics · 2022 · Katrine Marie Jakobsen、Jakob Egholt Søgaard

中文摘要

我们重新审视了对税收改革的行为反应的识别问题,并提出了一种对处理效应进行图形化验证与呈现的新方法。我们表明,标准估计策略依赖于趋势差异恒定的假设。在所得税背景下,这意味着在不存在税收改革的情况下,收入分布不同部分之间的收入趋势差异应保持不变。与双重差分研究中的事前趋势验证类似,我们可以通过比较收入分布中未受处理部分的收入演变来验证这一假设。我们通过研究丹麦的若干项税收改革来说明这一新方法。(JEL:C14 H30 J22)

Abstract

We revisit the identification of behavioral responses to tax reforms and develop a new approach for graphical validation and representation of treatment effects. We show that the standard estimation strategy relies on an assumption of constant trend differentials. In the context of income taxation, this implies that differences in income trends across the income distribution should remain constant in the absence of tax reforms. Similar to pre-trend validation of differences-in-differences studies, we can validate this assumption by comparing the evolution of income in untreated parts of the income distribution. We illustrate our new approach by studying several tax reforms in Denmark. (JEL: C14 H30 J22).
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