中文摘要
我们构建了一个两群体间政治竞争的动态模型，这两个群体对一个共同结果的数据生成过程持有不同的主观模型。其中一个群体的模型比另一个群体更简单，因为他们忽略了某些相关的政策变量。我们证明，政策周期必然出现，且简单的世界观——可被解读为民粹主义的世界观——意味着极端的政策选择。由持有更复杂模型者执政的时期增加了简单世界观的设定偏误，导致后者高估少数极端政策行动的正面影响。(JEL D72, D83, K42)
Abstract
We develop a dynamic model of political competition between two groups that differ in their subjective model of the data generating process for a common outcome. One group has a simpler model than the other group as they ignore some relevant policy variables. We show that policy cycles must arise and that simple world views—which can be interpreted as populist world views—imply extreme policy choices. Periods in which those with a more complex model govern increase the specification error of the simpler world view, leading the latter to overestimate the positive impact of a few extreme policy actions. (JEL D72, D83, K42)