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产业政策新经济学

The New Economics of Industrial Policy
Annual Review of Economics · 2024 · Réka Juhász、Nathaniel Lane、Dani Rodrik

中文摘要

本文讨论了近年来形成的大量文献,这些文献为产业政策如何发挥作用提供了严谨证据。相较于以相关性分析为主、且受解释问题困扰的上一代实证研究,这些文献是一次显著的进步。总体而言,最近这批论文对产业政策给出了更为积极的评价。本文回顾了产业政策的标准理据与批评意见,并对新的实证测度方法进行了广泛概述。本文讨论了近期文献如何通过密切关注测度、因果推断与经济结构,对产业政策的效果提供细致且情境化的理解。结合最新研究结果,本文重新评估了东亚的产业政策经验。最后,本文通过回顾产业政策如何被治理方面的新认识、超越补贴的更丰富政策工具,以及去工业化的现实所重塑,作为全文的结语。

Abstract

We discuss the considerable literature that has developed in recent years providing rigorous evidence on how industrial policies work. This literature is a significant improvement over the earlier generation of empirical work, which was largely correlational and marred by interpretational problems. On the whole, the recent crop of papers offers a more positive take on industrial policy. We review the standard rationales and critiques of industrial policy and provide a broad overview of new empirical approaches to measurement. We discuss how the recent literature, paying close attention to measurement, causal inference, and economic structure, is offering a nuanced and contextual understanding of the effects of industrial policy. We re-evaluate the East Asian experience with industrial policy in light of recent results. Finally, we conclude by reviewing how industrial policy is being reshaped by a new understanding of governance, a richer set of policy instruments beyond subsidies, and the reality of deindustrialization.
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