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儿童期医疗补助计划扩张对成年期结果的长期影响

Long-Term Impacts of Childhood Medicaid Expansions on Outcomes in Adulthood
Review of Economic Studies · 2019 · David W Brown、Amanda Kowalski、Ithai Zvi Lurie

中文摘要

我们使用美国国税局(IRS)的行政数据,考察童年时期医疗补助计划(Medicaid)资格范围的扩大对19至28岁每一年龄的成年期结果的长期影响。扩大医疗补助资格范围提高了大学入学率,并降低了生育率,这些影响在21岁及以前尤为突出。从23岁起,女性的当期工资收入更高,而男性工资收入增幅的估计不精确。将男女合并来看,死亡率更低。这些成年人获得的劳动所得税收抵免金额更少,缴纳的税款更多。按3%的贴现率计算,在19至28岁期间累计,联邦政府对童年时期医疗补助每“投资”1美元,可收回58美分。

Abstract

We use administrative data from the IRS to examine long-term impacts of childhood Medicaid eligibility expansions on outcomes in adulthood at each age from 19-28. Greater Medicaid eligibility increases college enrollment and decreases fertility, especially through age 21. Starting at age 23, females have higher contemporaneous wage income, although male increases are imprecise. Together, both genders have lower mortality. These adults collect less from the earned income tax credit and pay more in taxes. Cumulatively from ages 19-28, at a 3% discount rate, the federal government recoups 58 cents of each dollar of its "investment" in childhood Medicaid.
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