中文摘要
我们研究了巴西市长选举中的政治更替如何影响地方政府提供的公共服务。利用势均力敌选举的断点回归设计，我们发现执政党更迭的市政当局在市政官僚体系中经历了剧变：在多个服务部门以及管理层和非管理层层面均任命了新人员。在教育领域，由市政当局控制的学校中人员替换率的上升伴随着低0.05–0.08个标准差的考试成绩。相比之下，市长所在政党的更替不影响地方（非市政）学校。这些发现表明，当官僚体系未与政治过程相隔离时，政治更替会对公共服务质量产生不利影响。（JEL D72, D73, H75, H76, J45, O17）
Abstract
We study how political turnover in mayoral elections in Brazil affects public service provision by local governments. Exploiting a regression discontinuity design for close elections, we find that municipalities with a new party in office experience upheavals in the municipal bureaucracy: new personnel are appointed across multiple service sectors, and at both managerial and non-managerial levels. In education, the increase in the replacement rate of personnel in schools controlled by the municipal government is accompanied by test scores that are 0.05–0.08 standard deviations lower. In contrast, turnover of the mayor’s party does not impact local (non-municipal) schools. These findings suggest that political turnover can adversely affect the quality of public services when the bureaucracy is not shielded from the political process. (JEL D72, D73, H75, H76, J45, O17)