中文摘要
从北极的−20°C到赤道的30°C，全球平均气温差异显著，且预计到2100年全球变暖将达到1.4°C至4.5°C，可见气候变化将在全球各地产生大不相同的影响。鉴于北纬地区土地充裕，若人口和经济活动能够在空间上自由流动，全球变暖的经济成本将大幅降低。然而，空间摩擦确实存在：移民面临障碍，贸易和运输成本高昂，实体基础设施难以轻易迁移，而嵌入产业集群中的知识也只能不完全地扩散。因此，气候变化的经济成本与这些空间摩擦密切相关。在早期基本忽略空间因素的综合评估模型（IAM）基础上，过去十年间，旨在更现实地评估气候变化在地方与全球层面经济成本的动态空间综合评估模型（S-IAM）取得了显著进展。本文回顾这一进展，并为该领域未来的研究提供指引。
Abstract
With average temperature ranging from −20°C at the North Pole to 30°C at the Equator and with global warming expected to reach 1.4°C to 4.5°C by the year 2100, it is clear that climate change will have vastly different effects across the globe. Given the abundance of land in northern latitudes, if population and economic activity could freely move across space, the economic cost of global warming would be greatly reduced. However, spatial frictions are real: migrants face barriers, trade and transportation are costly, physical infrastructure is not footloose, and knowledge embedded in clusters of economic activity diffuses only imperfectly. Thus, the economic cost of climate change is intimately connected to these spatial frictions. Building on earlier integrated assessment models (IAMs) that largely ignored space, in the past decade there has been significant progress in developing dynamic spatial integrated assessment models (S-IAMs) aimed at providing a more realistic evaluation of the economic cost of climate change, both locally and globally. This review discusses this progress and provides a guide for future work in this area.