Annual Review of Economics · 2024 · [{"name": "Klaus Desmet", "affiliation": ["Southern Methodist University"]}, {"name": "Esteban Rossi‐Hansberg", "affiliation": ["University of Chicago"]}]
中文摘要
平均气温从北极的−20°C到赤道的30°C不等，而预计到2100年全球变暖幅度将达到1.4°C至4.5°C，因此气候变化显然将在全球范围内产生极为不同的影响。鉴于北方高纬地区土地丰富，如果人口与经济活动能够在空间上自由流动，全球变暖的经济成本将大幅降低。然而，空间摩擦真实存在：移民面临障碍，贸易与运输成本高昂，实体基础设施无法自由迁移，嵌入经济活动集群中的知识也只能不完全地扩散。因此，气候变化的经济成本与这些空间摩擦密切相关。早期的综合评估模型（IAMs）在很大程度上忽视了空间因素，在此基础上，过去十年中，旨在更真实地评估气候变化在地方与全球层面经济成本的动态空间综合评估模型（S-IAMs）的开发取得了显著进展。本文评述了这一进展，并为该领域未来研究提供了指引。
Abstract
With average temperature ranging from −20°C at the North Pole to 30°C at the Equator and with global warming expected to reach 1.4°C to 4.5°C by the year 2100, it is clear that climate change will have vastly different effects across the globe. Given the abundance of land in northern latitudes, if population and economic activity could freely move across space, the economic cost of global warming would be greatly reduced. However, spatial frictions are real: migrants face barriers, trade and transportation are costly, physical infrastructure is not footloose, and knowledge embedded in clusters of economic activity diffuses only imperfectly. Thus, the economic cost of climate change is intimately connected to these spatial frictions. Building on earlier integrated assessment models (IAMs) that largely ignored space, in the past decade there has been significant progress in developing dynamic spatial integrated assessment models (S-IAMs) aimed at providing a more realistic evaluation of the economic cost of climate change, both locally and globally. This review discusses this progress and provides a guide for future work in this area.