负利率政策: 一项综述
Negative Interest Rate Policies: A Survey
Annual Review of Economics · 2024 · [{"name": "Luis Brandão-Marques", "affiliation": ["International Monetary Fund"]}, {"name": "Marco Casiraghi", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Gastón Gelos", "affiliation": ["Centre for Economic Policy Research", "Bank for International Settlements"]}, {"name": "Güneş Kamber", "affiliation": ["International Monetary Fund"]}, {"name": "Roland Meeks", "affiliation": ["International Monetary Fund"]}]
中文摘要
本文综述了关于中央银行负利率政策 (NIRP) 影响的研究, 评述了近期关于 NIRP 对金融市场、银行、家庭、企业和宏观经济影响的研究。总体而言, 当利率为负时, 政策利率下调会沿收益率曲线传导, 其中首次将政策利率降至零以下的举措对较长期收益率的下降贡献显著。在采用 NIRP 后, 贷款利率和存款利率也有所下降。根据迄今为止的经验, 银行贷款规模上升, 银行利润并未显著恶化, 尽管其效应存在相当大的异质性。NIRP 对通胀和产出的影响似乎与传统利率下调的影响相当。
Abstract
This article surveys studies on the impact of central bank negative interest rate policies (NIRP). It reviews recent research on the effects of NIRP on financial markets, banks, households, firms, and the macroeconomy. Overall, policy rate cuts when interest rates are negative propagated along the yield curve, with the first policy cut below zero contributing significantly to the fall in longer-term yields. Lending and deposit rates also decreased following the adoption of NIRP. Based on the experience so far, bank lending volumes rose, and bank profits did not significantly deteriorate, although there was considerable heterogeneity in the effects. The impact of NIRP on inflation and output appears to have been comparable to that of conventional interest rate cuts.