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子女性别、年轻父亲的犯罪行为与犯罪行为中的溢出效应

Child’s Gender, Young Fathers’ Crime, and Spillover Effects in Criminal Behavior
Journal of Political Economy · 2021 · Christian Dustmann、Rasmus Landersø

中文摘要

在很年轻时就初育的男性,如果孩子是儿子而非女儿,其在孩子出生后最初几年被定罪的犯罪数量显著减少。这导致了行为溢出效应,减少了居住在同一社区的其他年轻男性的刑事定罪,由此产生的犯罪乘数甚至在针对核心个体的主要影响消散后仍影响同辈的犯罪。因此,通过社会乘数,针对潜在罪犯在早期阶段实施的预防政策所带来的犯罪成本下降幅度,大于仅由主要效应所提示的幅度。

Abstract

Men who father their first child at a very young age are convicted of significantly fewer crimes in the first years after birth if the child is a son rather than a daughter. This leads to behavioral spillovers that reduce criminal convictions among other young men living in the same neighborhood, with the resulting crime multipliers affecting peers’ crime even after the primary impact on the focal individual has dissipated. Through social multipliers, prevention policies that target potential criminals at an early stage, therefore, lead to larger reductions in the cost of crime than suggested by primary effects alone.
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