Trade and Labor Market Dynamics: General Equilibrium Analysis of the China Trade Shock
Econometrica · 2019 · Lorenzo Caliendo、Maximiliano A. Dvorkin、Fernando Parro
中文摘要
我们构建了一个动态贸易模型，其中空间上分散的劳动力市场面临对国际贸易的不同暴露度。该模型刻画了劳动力流动摩擦、商品流动摩擦、地理因素以及投入产出联系在决定均衡配置中的作用。我们展示了如何求解该模型的均衡并将模型应用于数据，而无需假设经济处于稳态，也无需估计生产率、迁移摩擦或贸易成本，因为这些可能难以识别。我们将模型校准至22个部门、38个国家与50个美国州。我们研究了2000至2007年间中国贸易的上升如何影响一千多个按部门与州区分的美国劳动力市场中的美国家庭。我们发现，中国贸易冲击导致美国制造业就业减少约55万，约占2000至2007年间制造业就业观察到的下降的16%。美国在总量上获益，但由于贸易与迁移摩擦，福利与就业效应在各美国劳动力市场之间存在差异。估计的向新长期均衡过渡的转型成本也是异质的，并反映了考虑劳动力动态的重要性。
Abstract
We develop a dynamic trade model with spatially distinct labor markets facing varying exposure to international trade. The model captures the role of labor mobility frictions, goods mobility frictions, geographic factors, and input‐output linkages in determining equilibrium allocations. We show how to solve the equilibrium of the model and take the model to the data without assuming that the economy is at a steady state and without estimating productivities, migration frictions, or trade costs, which can be difficult to identify. We calibrate the model to 22 sectors, 38 countries, and 50 U.S. states. We study how the rise in China's trade for the period 2000 to 2007 impacted U.S. households across more than a thousand U.S. labor markets distinguished by sector and state. We find that the China trade shock resulted in a reduction of about 0.55 million U.S. manufacturing jobs, about 16% of the observed decline in manufacturing employment from 2000 to 2007. The U.S. gains in the aggregate, but due to trade and migration frictions, the welfare and employment effects vary across U.S. labor markets. Estimated transition costs to the new long‐run equilibrium are also heterogeneous and reflect the importance of accounting for labor dynamics.