自动化: 理论、证据与展望

中文摘要

本文回顾了关于自动化及其对劳动力市场、工资、要素份额和生产率影响的文献。我首先介绍任务模型，并解释为何该框架为思考近期劳动力市场趋势以及自动化技术的影响提供了一种有说服力的视角。任务模型阐明，自动化技术通过在日益扩大的任务范围内以资本替代劳动而发挥作用。这种替代降低了成本，产生正向的生产率效应，但也减少了被自动化任务所替代的工人的就业机会，产生负向的替代效应。我梳理了实证文献，并得出结论：任务模型的含义以及自动化的替代效应在定性层面得到了广泛支持。最后，我讨论了现有文献的不足以及未来研究的方向。

Abstract

This article reviews the literature on automation and its impact on labor markets, wages, factor shares, and productivity. I first introduce the task model and explain why this framework offers a compelling way to think about recent labor market trends and the effects of automation technologies. The task model clarifies that automation technologies operate by substituting capital for labor in a widening range of tasks. This substitution reduces costs, creating a positive productivity effect, but it also reduces employment opportunities for workers displaced from automated tasks, creating a negative displacement effect. I survey the empirical literature and conclude that there is wide qualitative support for the implications of task models and the displacement effects of automation. I conclude by discussing shortcomings of the existing literature and avenues for future research.