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自动化:理论、证据与展望

Automation: Theory, Evidence, and Outlook
Annual Review of Economics · 2024 · Pascual Restrepo

中文摘要

本文回顾了有关自动化及其对劳动力市场、工资、要素份额和生产率影响的文献。本文首先介绍任务模型,并解释为何这一框架为理解近期劳动力市场趋势和自动化技术的影响提供了一种颇具说服力的方式。任务模型阐明,自动化技术通过在日益广泛的任务中以资本替代劳动而发挥作用。这种替代降低了成本,产生正向的生产率效应;但同时也减少了因任务自动化而被替代的劳动者的就业机会,产生负向的替代效应。本文梳理了实证文献,并得出结论:任务模型的推论以及自动化的替代效应得到了广泛的定性证据支持。最后,本文讨论了现有文献的不足以及未来的研究方向。

Abstract

This article reviews the literature on automation and its impact on labor markets, wages, factor shares, and productivity. I first introduce the task model and explain why this framework offers a compelling way to think about recent labor market trends and the effects of automation technologies. The task model clarifies that automation technologies operate by substituting capital for labor in a widening range of tasks. This substitution reduces costs, creating a positive productivity effect, but it also reduces employment opportunities for workers displaced from automated tasks, creating a negative displacement effect. I survey the empirical literature and conclude that there is wide qualitative support for the implications of task models and the displacement effects of automation. I conclude by discussing shortcomings of the existing literature and avenues for future research.
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