高收入国家的生育率: 趋势、模式、决定因素与后果
Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences
Annual Review of Economics · 2024 · [{"name": "David E. Bloom", "affiliation": ["Harvard Global Health Institute"]}, {"name": "Michael Kühn", "affiliation": ["International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis", "Vienna Institute of Demography"]}, {"name": "Klaus Prettner", "affiliation": ["Vienna University of Economics and Business"]}]
中文摘要
近几十年来, 高收入国家普遍经历了生育率下降。在这些国家中的大多数, 总和生育率如今已低于长期意味着人口稳定的水平。这引发了经济学家、政策制定者及更广泛公众对低生育率与人口下降之经济后果的担忧。本文旨在: (a) 描述高收入国家低生育率的主要决定因素; (b) 评估其潜在的经济后果; (c) 讨论个人与经济体的调整机制; (d) 提出一个简单的经济框架, 用以分析低生育率的长期经济影响; 以及 (e) 为经济政策制定者汲取经验, 以作出适当应对。尽管低生育率带来的经济挑战相当重大, 但深思熟虑且前后一致的政策回应能够缓解大多数不利后果。
Abstract
High-income countries have generally experienced falling fertility in recent decades. In most of these countries, the total fertility rate is now below the level that implies a stable population in the long run. This has led to concerns among economists, policymakers, and the wider public about the economic consequences of low fertility and population decline. In this contribution, we aim to ( a ) describe the main determinants of low fertility in high-income countries, ( b ) assess its potential economic consequences, ( c ) discuss adjustment mechanisms for individuals and economies, ( d ) propose a simple economic framework to analyze the long-run economic impacts of low fertility, and ( e ) draw lessons for economic policymakers to react appropriately. While the economic challenges of low fertility are substantial, a thoughtful and consistent policy response can mitigate most of the adverse consequences.