American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2026 · David J. Price、Jae Song
中文摘要
我们以西雅图-丹佛收入维持实验的参与者为对象,考察现金援助对受益人及其子女的长期效应。在这项随机实验中,处理组家庭在20世纪70年代获得了数千美元的额外政府福利,持续三年或五年。我们采用一种新算法将实验记录与社会保障管理局数据相匹配,发现处理使成年人在实验后的年收入减少了1800美元,并增加了他们的残疾福利申请。效应在临近退休年龄时最强;证据表明可能存在职业机制。相比之下,儿童在收入或与残疾系统的互动方面未经历显著效应。(JEL G51, H55, H75, I32, I38, J12, J14)
Abstract
We investigate the long-term effects of cash assistance on beneficiaries and their children among participants in the Seattle-Denver Income Maintenance Experiment. Treated families in this randomized experiment received thousands of dollars in extra government benefits for three or five years in the 1970s. We match experimental records to Social Security Administration data using a novel algorithm, finding that treatment decreased adults' postexperimental annual earnings by $1,800 and increased their disability benefit applications. Effects were strongest around retirement age; evidence suggests possible occupational mechanisms. In contrast, children experienced no significant effects on earnings or interaction with the disability system. (JEL G51, H55, H75, I32, I38, J12, J14)