Globalization, Capital Taxation, and Development: Evidence from a Macrohistorical Database
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2026 · Pierre Jean Bachas、Matthew Fisher-Post、Anders Jensen、Gabriel Zucman
中文摘要
本文构建并分析了一个新的全球宏观历史数据库，涵盖154个国家对资本和劳动的有效税率。我们确立了一个新的典型事实：尽管1965年至2018年间发达国家的有效资本税率有所下降，但1990年后发展中国家的有效资本税率却有所上升。多种国家、行业和企业层面的研究设计表明，贸易开放度通过增加在公司制企业和较大企业中生产的产出份额促成了这一上升，而在这些企业中有效资本税率更高。与普遍观点相反，在许多国家，全球化似乎支持了政府对资本课税的能力。（JEL F41, F62, H24, H25, O19, O23）
Abstract
This paper builds and analyzes a new global macrohistorical database of effective tax rates on capital and labor in 154 countries. We establish a new stylized fact: While effective capital tax rates fell in developed countries between 1965 and 2018, they rose in developing countries after 1990. Multiple country-, sector-, and firm-level research designs suggest that trade openness contributed to this rise by increasing the share of output produced in corporations and larger firms, where effective capital taxation is higher. In contrast to a common view, globalization appears in many countries to have supported governments' ability to tax capital. (JEL F41, F62, H24, H25, O19, O23)