American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2026 · Travis Baseler、Jakob Hennig
中文摘要
自然灾害每年导致数百万人流离失所，但当受灾人口散居各地时，其经济影响难以研究。本文估计了乌干达六次滑坡对几乎全部受灾人口的长期影响。该分析利用了居住在滑坡路径上的家庭与位于同一坡面但处于路径之外的家庭之间的清晰边界。滑坡发生数年后，受灾家庭的收入减少50%，报告对生活满意的可能性降低18个百分点。进一步分析表明，社会资本是灾后成功恢复的决定因素。(JEL H84, J11, O12, O13, Q54, R23, Z13)
Abstract
Natural disasters displace millions of people a year, but their economic impacts are difficult to study when the affected population becomes dispersed. This paper estimates the long-run impacts of six landslides in Uganda on nearly the full affected population. The analysis exploits the sharp boundaries between households residing along a landslide path and those on the same slopes but outside the path. Years after the landslides, affected households earn 50 percent less income and are 18 percentage points less likely to report being satisfied with their lives. Further analysis points to social capital as a determinant of successful post-disaster recovery. (JEL H84, J11, O12, O13, Q54, R23, Z13)