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温度对决策的代价

Temperature’s Toll on Decision-Making
The Economic Journal · 2024 · Michelle Escobar Carías、David W. Johnston、Rachel J. Knott、Rohan Sweeney

中文摘要

温度是否会影响决策能力和理性?使用印度尼西亚数据,我们估计风险选择、不耐烦以及理性选择违背如何随温度暴露而变化。我们表明,高温天气会暂时增加理性选择违背和不耐烦,但不影响与风险相关的决策。这些效应主要由夜间而非日间温度驱动。我们提供初步证据表明,这些效应背后的机制是睡眠质量下降,进而影响次日的认知,尤其是数学能力。这些能力对于理性和效用最大化的决策至关重要。对于经济弱势家庭以及空调普及率较低的地区,效应最大。

Abstract

Abstract Does temperature affect decision-making abilities and rationality? Using Indonesian data, we estimate how risky choices, impatience and rational choice violations vary with exposure to temperature. We show that hot weather temporarily increases rational choice violations and impatience, but does not affect risk-related decisions. These effects are primarily driven by nighttime rather than daytime temperatures. We provide suggestive evidence that the mechanism behind these effects is decreased sleep quality, affecting cognition the following day, particularly math skills. These skills are critical for rational and utility-maximising decision-making. Effects are largest for economically disadvantaged households and in areas with low rates of air-conditioning.
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