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就业结构与现代税收制度的兴起

Employment Structure and the Rise of the Modern Tax System
American Economic Review · 2021 · Anders Jensen

中文摘要

本文构建了一个涵盖各收入水平共100个国家的新微观数据库,以及美国(1870–2010年)和墨西哥(1960–2010年)的长期时间序列,以记录现代税收制度如何在发展过程中形成。我确立了一组新的典型事实,表明随着一国的发展,所得税免征额门槛在收入分布中的位置不断下移,并与雇员就业占比的增长相伴随,而这种增长在收入分布中逐渐向更靠下的位置延伸。进一步的证据支持这样一种解读:随着发展推进,雇员占比的上升所带来的第三方覆盖所得的增加,推动了所得税税基的扩大。

Abstract

This paper builds a new microdatabase that covers 100 countries at all income levels and long-run time series in the United States (1870–2010) and Mexico ( 1960–2010) to document how the modern tax system arises over development. I establish a new set of stylized facts, which show that the income tax exemption threshold decreases in the income distribution as a country develops, tracking growth in the employee share of employment that occurs gradually further down the income distribution. Additional evidence supports the interpretation that the rise in third-party covered income through increases in employee share drives expansions of the income tax base over development. (JEL D31, H23, H24, H71, J22, J23, N40)
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