← ireadpaper · 顶刊中的公共政策研究

信贷、债务通缩与大萧条:再审视

Credit, Debt-Deflation, and the Great Depression Revisited
Journal of Economic Perspectives · 2025 · Ben Bernanke

中文摘要

本文重新审视伯南克(1983)的论点,即通货紧缩与名义收入下降所引发的私人信贷市场紊乱,有助于解释大萧条的深度与持续性。此次重新审视的动因,是经济学家日益关注金融摩擦在经济波动中的作用,以及近期关于大萧条和其他信贷受扰时期的实证研究。总体而言,如今已有相当多的证据表明,借款方(农民、家庭和企业)与贷款方(非银行机构及银行)的财务困境,在20世纪30年代显著抑制了信贷流量、支出和经济活动。事实上,从当时政治领袖的政策选择及其相应理由来看,他们显然将恢复正常的信贷流量视为对抗大萧条的首要任务之一。

Abstract

This article revisits the thesis of Bernanke (1983) that the disruption of private credit markets induced by deflation and falling nominal incomes helps to explain the depth and persistence of the Great Depression. This new look is motivated by economists’ increased attention to the role of financial frictions in economic fluctuations as well as recent empirical research on the Depression and other episodes of disrupted credit. Overall, considerable evidence now exists that the financial distress of both borrowers (farmers, households, and businesses) and lenders (nonbanks as well as banks) significantly depressed credit flows, spending, and economic activity in the 1930s. Indeed, judging by their policy choices and the accompanying rationales, political leaders of the period evidently viewed the normalization of credit flows as a top priority in their fight against the Depression.
在 ireadpaper 查看全部 →