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消费者信贷获取对失业的影响

The Impact of Consumer Credit Access on Unemployment
Review of Economic Studies · 2019 · Kyle Herkenhoff

中文摘要

在过去三十年中,失业家庭获取无担保循环信贷的机会增加了一倍多。本文分析了信贷获取的周期性波动和趋势性增长如何影响经济周期。主要的定量结果是,信贷扩张和收缩在过去40年中促成了适度更深、更持久的衰退。随着1977年至2010年间越来越多的人获得信贷,周期性信贷波动影响了更大比例的人口,并成为就业动态更重要的决定因素。尽管经济周期更加波动,但新生儿严格偏好生活在信贷市场准入不断增长但伴随波动的经济体中。

Abstract

Abstract Unemployed households’ access to unsecured revolving credit more than tripled over the last three decades. This article analyses how both cyclical fluctuations and trend increases in credit access impact the business cycle. The main quantitative result is that credit expansions and contractions have contributed to moderately deeper and more protracted recessions over the last 40 years. As more individuals obtained credit from 1977 to 2010, cyclical credit fluctuations affected a larger share of the population and became more important determinants of employment dynamics. Even though business cycles are more volatile, newborns strictly prefer to live in the economy with growing, but fluctuating, access to credit markets.
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