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日本的债务之谜:以借款资金建立的主权财富基金

Japan’s Debt Puzzle: Sovereign Wealth Fund from Borrowed Money
Journal of Economic Perspectives · 2025 · YiLi Chien、Wenxin Du、Hanno Lustig

中文摘要

我们分析了全球利率上升背景下,日本长期维持低利率政策所伴随的风险。为弥补持续存在的财政赤字,日本公共部门依赖低成本的国内融资,在国内外投资风险资产,实际上形成了一个由借款资金支持的主权财富基金。最终,这些风险由日本的债券持有人、存款人和纳税人承担。尽管美国面临类似的财政压力,但其不太可能采取日本的做法。

Abstract

We analyze the risks associated with Japan’s prolonged low-interest rate policies amid a global environment of rising rates. To finance its persistent deficits, the Japanese public sector depends on inexpensive domestic funding to invest in risky assets both domestically and internationally, effectively creating a sovereign wealth fund fueled by borrowed money. Ultimately, these risks fall on Japanese bondholders, depositors, and taxpayers. While the United States faces similar fiscal pressures, it is unlikely to adopt Japan’s approach.
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