日本的债务谜题: 借钱而来的主权财富基金

Journal of Economic Perspectives · 2025 · [{"name": "YiLi Chien", "affiliation": ["Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis"]}, {"name": "Wenxin Du", "affiliation": ["Harvard University"]}, {"name": "Hanno Lustig", "affiliation": ["Stanford Medicine"]}]

中文摘要

本文分析在全球利率上升的环境下, 日本长期低利率政策所伴随的风险。为其持续的财政赤字融资, 日本公共部门依赖低成本的国内资金, 在国内外投资于风险资产, 实际上形成了一个由借入资金驱动的主权财富基金。最终, 这些风险由日本的债券持有人、储户和纳税人承担。尽管美国面临类似的财政压力, 但其不太可能采用日本的做法。

Abstract

We analyze the risks associated with Japan’s prolonged low-interest rate policies amid a global environment of rising rates. To finance its persistent deficits, the Japanese public sector depends on inexpensive domestic funding to invest in risky assets both domestically and internationally, effectively creating a sovereign wealth fund fueled by borrowed money. Ultimately, these risks fall on Japanese bondholders, depositors, and taxpayers. While the United States faces similar fiscal pressures, it is unlikely to adopt Japan’s approach.