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来自发展中国家的移民:自我选择、收入弹性与辛普森悖论

Migration from developing countries: Selection, income elasticity, and Simpson’s paradox
Journal of Development Economics · 2024 · Michael Andrew Clemens、Mariapia Mendola

中文摘要

发展中国家移民的经济成因与后果取决于难以观察的自我选择模式。我们利用覆盖653,613人的全国代表性调查数据,估计了99个发展中国家移民自我选择的程度——分别基于收入的可观测与不可观测决定因素。在低收入国家,积极准备移民者的收入中由教育等可观测特征所解释的部分高出14%,由不可观测特征所解释的部分高出12%。移民的模拟收入弹性在总体上为正(+0.23),尽管在子群体中为负,这是辛普森悖论的一个实例。

Abstract

The economic causes and effects of migration from developing countries depend on patterns of self-selection that are difficult to observe. We estimate the degree of migrant self-selection—on both observed and unobserved determinants of income—for 99 developing countries using nationally representative survey data on 653,613 people. In low-income countries, people actively preparing to emigrate have 14 percent higher incomes explained by observed traits such as schooling, and 12 percent higher incomes explained by unobserved traits. The simulated income elasticity of emigration is positive in the aggregate (+0.23) despite being negative in subpopulations, an instance of Simpson’s paradox.
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