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世界银行的《东亚奇迹》:是否过度带有时代烙印?

The World Bank’s East Asian Miracle : Too Much a Product of Its Time?
Journal of Economic Perspectives · 2025 · Nancy Birdsall

中文摘要

世界银行1993年出版的《东亚奇迹》一书,将1965年至1990年间日本及东亚其他七个经济体异常快速的增长(年均5%)归因于这些经济体对市场“基本面”的遵循——稳健的宏观管理、“共享式”增长政策、人力资本投资——并结合了促进技术学习、进而推动这些国家全要素生产率高增长的“出口推动”战略。世界银行的作者否定了“产业政策”在其增长中的核心作用,并告诫其他发展中国家在缺乏强有力政府机构的情况下不应采用产业政策。该书是否过度受到其后苏联时代、新自由主义时代的影响?鉴于我们目前对发展中国家治理状况的了解,产业政策是否至少能在部分发展中国家中助推增长?

Abstract

The 1993 publication of a World Bank book on the East Asian Miracle explained the extraordinarily rapid growth of Japan and seven other economies of East Asia (at 5 percent a year) between 1965 and 1990 as grounded in those economies’ adherence to market “fundamentals”—sound macro management, “shared” growth policies, investment in human capital—combined with an “export push” which fostered the technological learning that drove those countries’ high total factor productivity growth. The Bank authors dismissed “industrial policy” as central to their growth and cautioned against other developing countries adopting industrial policy in the absence of strong government institutions. Was the book too much a product of its post-Soviet, neoliberal era? Considering what we know now about the state of governance in developing countries, might industrial policy help boost growth in at least some developing countries?
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