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被迫迁移与地方经济发展:来自战后匈牙利的证据

Forced migration and local economic development: Evidence from postwar Hungary
Journal of Development Economics · 2024 · Dániel Borbély、Ross Mckenzie

中文摘要

本文以二战后匈牙利驱逐德裔少数族裔作为自然实验,考察了被迫迁移对迁出地经济的影响。结合历史与当代数据来源,我们表明被迫迁移导致了经济活动的持久下降。驱动该结果的合理机制似乎在于部门结构变化(向农业转移)以及德国人与替代他们的定居者之间的技能差异。我们的分析揭示,被迫迁移会在迁出地经济中造成持久的区域不平等。

Abstract

We investigate the effects of forced migration on sending economies using the post-WW2 expulsion of German minorities from Hungary as a natural experiment. We combine historical and contemporary data sources to show that the forced migrations led to lasting reductions in economic activity. Plausible mechanisms driving this result appear to be sectoral change (shift towards agriculture) and skills differences between Germans and the settlers that replaced them. Our analysis reveals that forced migration can cause lasting regional inequalities in sending economies.
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