机会地图集: 绘制社会流动的童年根源
The Opportunity Atlas: Mapping the Childhood Roots of Social Mobility
American Economic Review · 2025 · [{"name": "Raj Chetty", "affiliation": ["Harvard University", "Harvard University Press"]}, {"name": "John N. Friedman", "affiliation": ["John Brown University"]}, {"name": "Nathaniel Hendren", "affiliation": ["Harvard University", "Massachusetts Institute of Technology"]}, {"name": "Maggie R. Jones", "affiliation": ["United States Census Bureau", "Government of the United States of America"]}, {"name": "Sonya R. Porter", "affiliation": ["United States Census Bureau", "Government of the United States of America"]}]
中文摘要
我们构建了一个按童年时期所处人口普查区划分的成年期平均结果公共图谱。不同邻里之间的结果差异显著: 对于父母收入为 27,000 美元的儿童, 在同一县内各普查区之间, 成年期平均家庭收入的标准差为 10,420 美元。贫困率等衡量邻里机会的传统指标仅能解释结果差异的一半。实验与准实验估计表明, 邻里间结果差异的 60% 由因果效应驱动。我们展示了如何运用这些统计指标, 以更好地瞄准政策来改善低机会地区, 并帮助家庭迁往可负担的高机会地区。(JEL G51, I32, I38, J12, R23)
Abstract
We construct a public atlas of mean outcomes in adulthood by childhood census tract. Outcomes vary sharply across neighborhoods: For children whose parents earn $27,000, the standard deviation of mean household income in adulthood is $10,420 across tracts within counties. Only half the variation in outcomes is explained by traditional measures of neighborhood opportunity like poverty rates. Experimental and quasi-experimental estimates indicate 60 percent of the variation in outcomes across neighborhoods is driven by causal effects. We demonstrate how our statistics can be applied to better target policies to improve low-opportunity areas and help families move to affordable high-opportunity areas. (JEL G51, I32, I38, J12, R23)