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信息摩擦、信念更新与国内迁移:来自加纳和乌干达的证据

Information frictions, belief updating and internal migration: Evidence from Ghana and Uganda
Journal of Development Economics · 2024 · Sarah Frohnweiler、Bernd Beber、Cara Luisa Ebert

中文摘要

关于迁移收益的信息摩擦可能导致无效率的迁移选择。我们研究了在加纳和乌干达随机分配的关于地区收入差异的信息干预效应,以探究参与者的信念更新以及国内迁移意向、目的地偏好和实际迁移的变化。处理组参与者更偏好收入较高的目的地,而对意向的影响似乎遵循受试者最初对潜在收益的低估或高估,并呈现出不对称的更新倾向。效应持续18个月,与他人关于迁移的讨论增加,但实际迁移并未增加。关于收入的知识影响意向和目的地选择,但实际搬迁的障碍是复杂的。

Abstract

Information frictions about benefits of migration can lead to inefficient migration choices. We study effects of randomly assigned information treatments concerning regional income differentials in Ghana and Uganda to explore participants’ belief updating and changes in internal migration intentions, destination preferences, and actual migration. Treated participants prefer higher income destinations, while effects on intent plausibly follow subjects’ initial under- or overestimation of potential gains, with asymmetric updating propensities. Effects persist for 18 months, and discussions with others about migrating increase, but actual migration does not. Knowledge about income affects intentions and destination choices, but barriers to actual relocation are complex.
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