Risk Preferences and Field Behavior: The Relevance of Higher-Order Risk Preferences
American Economic Review · 2026 · Sebastian O. Schneider、Matthias Sutter
中文摘要
我们使用新方法，在一项包含 658 名青少年的激励实验中测量高阶风险偏好（谨慎性与节制性）的强度。与理论一致，我们发现高阶风险偏好与实地行为高度相关，涵盖预防、健康、成瘾行为和金融决策。最重要的是，我们表明，忽视谨慎性与节制性可能导致关于风险偏好与实地行为关系的误导性结论；而风险容忍度的调查测度之所以常常与实地行为相关，正是因为它们捕捉到了高阶风险偏好。（JEL C83, D81, D91, J13）
Abstract
Using new methods, we measure the intensities of higher-order risk preferences (prudence and temperance) in an incentivized experiment with 658 adolescents. Aligned with theory, we find that higher-order risk preferences are strongly related to field behavior, including prevention, health, addictive behavior, and financial decision-making. Most importantly, we show that ignoring prudence and temperance can yield misleading conclusions about the relation of risk preferences to field behavior, and that survey measures of risk tolerance often relate to field behavior because they capture higher-order risk preferences. (JEL C83, D81, D91, J13)