Monotonicity among Judges: Evidence from Judicial Panels and Consequences for Judge IV Designs
中文摘要
法官工具变量（IV）设计依赖于单调性——即在所有案件中，每位法官都比更宽松的法官更严格（或至少不更宽松，即弱意义上更严格）。我在五种不同情境下测量了司法合议庭中的单调性，发现在高达50%的非一致裁决案件中单调性遭到违反。这些单调性违反无法被常规检验检测出来，但它们通常只会给法官工具变量估计带来很小的偏误。（JEL C26, K41, K42, O17）
Abstract
Judge IV designs rely on monotonicity—each judge being weakly stricter than more lenient judges in all cases. I measure monotonicity in judicial panels in five different settings and find that it is violated in up to 50 percent of nonunanimous cases. The monotonicity violations are not detected by conventional tests, but they would typically induce little bias in judge IV estimates. (JEL C26, K41, K42, O17)