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预防性储蓄、非流动资产与家庭收入风险冲击的总体后果

Precautionary Savings, Illiquid Assets, and the Aggregate Consequences of Shocks to Household Income Risk
Econometrica · 2019 · Christian Bayer、Ralph Luetticke、Lien Pham-Dao、Volker Tjaden

中文摘要

家庭面临较大的收入不确定性,且这种不确定性随经济周期大幅波动。我们在一个包含不完全市场、流动性与非流动性资产以及名义刚性的模型中,考察这些波动的宏观经济后果。不确定性上升会抑制总需求,因为家庭出于预防性动机囤积流动性“纸面”资产作为应对,从而同时减少非流动性实物投资和消费需求。这转化为产出损失,而中央银行可以通过提供流动性来防止这种损失。我们表明,不确定性冲击的福利后果关键取决于家庭的资产头寸。人力资本较少但非流动性财富较高的家庭,从不确定性冲击中损失最大,也从稳定化政策中获益最多。

Abstract

Households face large income uncertainty that varies substantially over the business cycle. We examine the macroeconomic consequences of these variations in a model with incomplete markets, liquid and illiquid assets, and a nominal rigidity. Heightened uncertainty depresses aggregate demand as households respond by hoarding liquid ``paper'' assets for precautionary motives, thereby reducing both illiquid physical investment and consumption demand. This translates into output losses, which a central bank can prevent by providing liquidity. We show that the welfare consequences of uncertainty shocks crucially depend on a household's asset position. Households with little human capital but high illiquid wealth lose the most from an uncertainty shock and gain the most from stabilization policy.
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