贸易与国内扭曲: 非正规性的案例
Trade and Domestic Distortions: The Case of Informality
Econometrica · 2026 · [{"name": "Rafael Dix-Carneiro", "affiliation": ["Duke University"]}, {"name": "Pinelopi Goldberg", "affiliation": ["Yale University"]}, {"name": "Costas Meghir", "affiliation": ["Yale University"]}, {"name": "Gabriel Ulyssea", "affiliation": ["University College London"]}]
中文摘要
本文考察在一组导致非正规性(informality)——发展中国家普遍存在的现象——的国内扭曲存在的情况下, 国际贸易的影响。在我们的定量模型中, 非正规部门源于繁重且被政府执行不完全的税收与监管。在均衡中, 规模较小、生产率较低的企业面临的扭曲小于规模较大、生产率较高的企业, 这可能导致严重的资源错配。我们表明, 在非正规部门规模较大的环境中, 贸易收益会被显著放大, 因为贸易壁垒的降低意味着资源从初始扭曲较小的企业重新配置到扭曲较大的企业。我们证实了早期简约式(reduced-form)研究的发现, 即非正规部门缓解了负向劳动需求冲击对失业的影响。然而, 非正规部门也可能加剧经济衰退对实际收入的不利影响, 从而放大错配。最后, 我们的研究揭示了贸易开放与企业间工资不平等之间的关系。
Abstract
We examine the effects of international trade in the presence of a set of domestic distortions giving rise to informality, a prevalent phenomenon in developing countries. In our quantitative model, the informal sector arises from burdensome taxes and regulations that are imperfectly enforced by the government. In equilibrium, smaller, less productive firms face fewer distortions than larger, more productive ones, potentially leading to substantial misallocation. We show that in settings with a large informal sector, the gains from trade are significantly amplified, as reductions in trade barriers imply a reallocation of resources from initially less distorted to more distorted firms. We confirm findings from earlier reduced‐form studies that the informal sector mitigates the impact of negative labor demand shocks on unemployment. Nonetheless, the informal sector can exacerbate the adverse real income effects of economic downturns, amplifying misallocation. Last, our research sheds light on the relationship between trade openness and cross‐firm wage inequality.