Econometrica · 2026 · Rafael Dix-Carneiro、Pinelopi Goldberg、Costas Meghir、Gabriel Ulyssea
中文摘要
本文考察在一系列导致非正规性的国内扭曲存在的情况下国际贸易的影响，非正规性是发展中国家普遍存在的现象。在我们的量化模型中，非正规部门源于政府执行不力的繁重税收和监管。在均衡状态下，规模较小、生产率较低的企业面临的扭曲少于规模较大、生产率较高的企业，这可能导致严重的资源错配。我们表明，在非正规部门规模较大的情形下，贸易收益会显著放大，因为贸易壁垒的降低意味着资源从最初扭曲程度较低的企业重新配置到扭曲程度较高的企业。我们证实了早期简约式研究的发现，即非正规部门能够缓解负向劳动需求冲击对失业的影响。尽管如此，非正规部门可能加剧经济衰退对实际收入的不利影响，从而放大资源错配。最后，我们的研究揭示了贸易开放度与企业间工资不平等之间的关系。
Abstract
We examine the effects of international trade in the presence of a set of domestic distortions giving rise to informality, a prevalent phenomenon in developing countries. In our quantitative model, the informal sector arises from burdensome taxes and regulations that are imperfectly enforced by the government. In equilibrium, smaller, less productive firms face fewer distortions than larger, more productive ones, potentially leading to substantial misallocation. We show that in settings with a large informal sector, the gains from trade are significantly amplified, as reductions in trade barriers imply a reallocation of resources from initially less distorted to more distorted firms. We confirm findings from earlier reduced‐form studies that the informal sector mitigates the impact of negative labor demand shocks on unemployment. Nonetheless, the informal sector can exacerbate the adverse real income effects of economic downturns, amplifying misallocation. Last, our research sheds light on the relationship between trade openness and cross‐firm wage inequality.