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家庭饮食的变化:决定因素与可预测性

Changes in household diet: Determinants and predictability
Journal of Public Economics · 2022 · Stefan Hut、Emily F. Oster

中文摘要

我们利用食品杂货购买数据来分析饮食变化。我们表明,饮食变化并不常见,即便是在对重大疾病诊断或家庭状况变化作出反应时也是如此。随后,我们识别出一小部分表现出显著饮食变化(饮食改善或恶化)的家庭。我们运用机器学习对这些家庭进行预测,发现饮食集中度是变化的显著预测因素。家庭往往一次只改变一小部分食品项目,这表明饮食建议或许更适合聚焦于作出更小、更简单的改变,而非对饮食进行更全面的调整。

Abstract

We use grocery purchase data to analyze dietary changes. We show that dietary change is unusual, even in response to significant disease diagnosis or changes in household circumstances. We then identify a small subset of households which show significant dietary changes (either improvements or worsened diet). We use machine learning to predict these households and find dietary concentration is a significant predictor of change. Households tend to change a small subset of food items at a time, suggesting dietary recommendations might be better focused on making smaller, simpler changes rather than broader diet alterations.
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