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转移国内动荡

Diverting domestic turmoil
Journal of Public Economics · 2022 · Ashani Amarasinghe

中文摘要

当面临激烈的国内动荡时,政府可能会策略性地参与对外互动,以转移公众对紧迫国内议题的注意力。我以1997–2014年间190个国家的全球代表性样本为研究对象,在月度层面检验了这一假说。利用媒体报道事件的高频数据,我发现了稳健的证据,表明政府在国内动荡时期会诉诸转移策略,且这种转移采取言语攻击性对外互动的形式。转移性互动通常针对在文化和地理维度上联系紧密的国家,以及国家能力水平较低的国家。有趣的是,我并未发现这些策略在遏制国内动荡方面有效的证据。综合来看,这些发现为政府系统性地将言语攻击性对外互动作为一种短期、低成本、低风险的战略工具以转移国内动荡,提供了新的洞见。

Abstract

When faced with intense domestic turmoil, governments may strategically engage in foreign interactions to divert the public’s attention away from pressing domestic issues. I test this hypothesis for a globally representative sample of 190 countries, at the monthly level, over the years 1997–2014. Using high–frequency data on media–reported events, I find robust evidence that governments resort to diversionary strategies in times of domestic turmoil and that such diversion takes the form of verbally aggressive foreign interactions. Diversionary interactions are typically targeted at countries closely linked along cultural and geographic dimensions, and at countries with low levels of state capability. Interestingly, I do not find evidence of these strategies being effective in deterring domestic turmoil. Taken together, these findings provide new insights on governments’ systematic use of verbally aggressive foreign interactions as a short-term, low-cost, low-risk, strategic tool, to divert domestic turmoil.
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