印度的合同劳工与机构增长
Contract Labor and Establishment Growth in India
Econometrica · 2025 · [{"name": "Marianne Bertrand", "affiliation": ["Center for Economic and Policy Research", "University of Chicago", "International Zinc Association"]}, {"name": "Chang‐Tai Hsieh", "affiliation": ["Center for Economic and Policy Research", "University of Chicago"]}, {"name": "Nick Tsivanidis", "affiliation": ["University of California, Berkeley"]}]
中文摘要
印度《工业争议法》(IDA) 要求大型制造业工厂若希望缩减劳动力规模, 须支付相当高的成本。自21世纪初以来, 这些大型工厂大幅增加了对不受上述监管约束的合同工的使用。在2000年至2015年间, 雇员超过100人的企业中, 合同工在非管理岗位就业中的占比几乎翻倍 (从21个百分点增至40个百分点), 而雇员少于50人的企业中该占比仅从14个百分点增至17个百分点。同期, 印度正规制造业工厂中企业规模分布右尾的厚度增加, 大型工厂的劳动平均产出下降, 大型工厂的就业创造率上升, 大型工厂推出新产品的概率也随之提高。我们认为, 这些变化是由合同工使用的增加所导致的。在一个受解雇成本约束的企业增长模型中, 我们表明, 自21世纪初以来, 放宽合同工的使用渠道使印度制造业全要素生产率 (TFP) 提高了7.3%, 而这一提高完全通过大型与小型工厂之间错配的一次性减少实现, 长期增长率的变化则可忽略不计。
Abstract
India's Industrial Disputes Act (IDA) requires large manufacturing plants to pay substantial costs if they wish to shrink their workforce. Since the early 2000s, these large plants have dramatically increased their use of contract workers who are not subject to these regulatory constraints. Between 2000 and 2015, the contract labor share in non‐managerial employment nearly doubled at establishments with more than 100 workers (from 21 to 40 percentage points), while it only increased from 14 to 17 percentage points at establishments with less than 50 workers. Over the same period, the thickness of the right tail of the establishment size distribution in formal Indian manufacturing plants increased, the average product of labor at large plants declined, the job creation rate for large plants increased, and the probability that large plants introduced new products rose. We argue that these changes were caused by the increased adoption of contract labor. In a model of establishment growth subject to firing costs, we show that easing access to contract labor increased TFP in Indian manufacturing by 7.3% since the early 2000s, occurring all through a one‐time reduction in misallocation between large and small plants with negligible change in the long‐run growth rate.