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警察局对犯罪的基于地域的效应:来自警察局关闭的证据

The place-based effects of police stations on crime: Evidence from station closures
Journal of Public Economics · 2022 · Sebastian Blesse、André Diegmann

中文摘要

许多国家通过关闭地方警察局来整合其警力。警察局代表了警力组织中一个重要且可见的方面。我们提供了关于通过关闭地方警察局来集中警务办公机构对犯罪结果影响的新证据。将匹配与双重差分设定相结合,我们发现报案的汽车盗窃和住宅入室盗窃有所增加。我们的结果与感知被发现风险的下降相一致,并由警局特征的异质性所驱动。我们可以排除其他替代解释,如失能、犯罪转移以及区域层面上警力雇佣或策略的变化。我们认为,由于地方警察的可见度降低,犯罪分子受到的威慑减弱。

Abstract

Many countries consolidate their police forces by closing down local police stations. Police stations represent an important and visible aspect of the organization of police forces. We provide novel evidence on the effect of centralizing police offices through the closure of local police stations on crime outcomes. Combining matching with a difference-in-differences specification, we find an increase in reported car theft and burglary in residential properties. Our results are consistent with a negative shift in perceived detection risks and are driven by heterogeneous station characteristics. We can rule out alternative explanations such as incapacitation, crime displacement, and changes in police employment or strategies at the regional level. We argue that criminals are less deterred due to a lower visibility of the local police.
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