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2004年印度洋海啸带来的应激暴露驱动甲状腺激素生理机能的长期变化

Stressful Exposure from the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami Drives Long-term Changes in Thyroid Hormone Physiology
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · Ralph I. Lawton、Duncan Thomas、Elizabeth Frankenberg、Cecep Sumantri、Teresa Seeman、Eileen Crimmins

中文摘要

应激事件与长期不良健康影响相关,但将暴露与疾病联系起来的因果机制仍知之甚少。一种机制是调控代谢稳态的激素信号的持续改变。我们使用《海啸后果与恢复研究》的数据,考察与2004年印度洋海啸暴露相关的应激对游离三碘甲状腺原氨酸(FT3)水平的长期影响;FT3是循环中具有生物活性的甲状腺激素的一项测量指标。生物标志物在海啸后20年进行测量,样本为2024年年龄35岁及以上、具有人群代表性的样本,这些人在海啸发生时居住在印度尼西亚亚齐省沿海,即受海啸冲击最严重的地区。由于受访者在海啸前已接受首次访谈,此后无论是否迁移均被追踪,该样本避免了长期灾害研究中常见的选择性偏误。我们利用社区层面海啸死亡率的变化来识别海啸暴露的因果效应,在同一子区内对不同社区进行比较。我们发现,海啸暴露程度越高,20年后FT3水平越低。暴露还改变了FT3、身体成分与皮质醇之间的关系,并增加了心血管代谢风险。这些发现确定,甲状腺激素生理机能的持续改变是连接严重应激暴露与长期心血管代谢疾病风险的一条潜在通路。

Abstract

Stressful events are associated with long-term adverse health impacts, but the causal mechanisms linking exposures to disease remain poorly understood. One mechanism is persistent changes to hormonal signaling that regulate metabolic homeostasis. We examine the long-term impacts of stress associated with exposure to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami on levels of free triiodothyronine (FT3), a circulating measure of biologically active thyroid hormone, using data from the Study of Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery. Biomarkers are measured 20 years post-tsunami in a population-representative sample age 35y+ in 2024 who, at the time of the tsunami, were living along the coast of Aceh, Indonesia, the area hardest-hit by the tsunami. Because respondents were first interviewed before the tsunami and subsequently tracked regardless of migration, the sample avoids selection bias common in long-term disaster studies. We identify the causal effect of tsunami exposure using variation in community-level tsunami mortality, comparing communities within the same sub-district. We find that greater tsunami exposure reduced levels of FT3 20 years later. Exposure also altered relationships between FT3, body composition, and cortisol and increased cardiometabolic risk. These findings identify persistent alteration of thyroid hormone physiology as a potential pathway linking severe stressful exposures to long-term cardiometabolic disease risk.
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