COVID-19期间的收入冲击与稳定

中文摘要

本文记录了COVID-19大流行期间美国收入变化的量级与分布，以及财政救助如何抵消收入损失。我们利用行政税收数据构建面板，以衡量年度收入变化。大流行期间收入下降的频率与大衰退期间相似，但分布有所不同。在2020年，初始处于分布下半部分的工人更有可能经历至少10%的收入下降。虽然大多数经历大幅年度收入下降的工人并未领取失业保险，但超过半数的受益者在2020年得到了完全补偿，因为失业保险替代了其年度收入下降中位数的105%。在纳入失业保险后，低收入工人经历大幅收入下降的可能性不仅小于大衰退期间，也小于2019年。

Abstract

This paper documents the magnitude and distribution of U.S. earnings changes during the COVID-19 pandemic and how fiscal relief offset lost earnings. We build panels from administrative tax data to measure annual earnings changes. The frequency of earnings declines during the pandemic were similar to the Great Recession, but the distribution was different. In 2020, workers starting in the bottom half of the distribution were more likely to experience an earnings decline of at least 10 percent. While most workers experiencing large annual earnings declines do not receive unemployment insurance, over half of beneficiaries were made whole in 2020, as unemployment insurance replaced a median of 105 percent of their annual earnings declines. After incorporating unemployment insurance, the likelihood of large earnings declines among low-earning workers was not only smaller than during the Great Recession, but also smaller than in 2019.