Econometrica · 2026 · Allan Hsiao、Jacob Moscona、Karthik A. Sastry
中文摘要
本文研究政府如何干预农产品市场，以重塑气候极端事件的经济后果。我们构建了一个全球数据集，涵盖自1980年以来各国、各类作物的农业政策与极端高温暴露情况。国内生产遭受极端高温冲击后，政府会采取降低国内粮食价格以扶助消费者的政策。这一效应具有持续性，主要通过边境政策实施，并且在选举年份更强。国外生产遭受冲击则引发相反的反应：采取提高价格以扶助生产者的政策。这些发现可以由一个模型加以解释：政府利用农业政策在国内利益集团之间进行再分配。我们的估计表明，政策反应保护了国内消费者，但同时加剧了国内生产者与国外消费者的损失。这些政策反应在全球范围内具有累退性后果，对贫困国家和高温暴露程度较高的国家造成了不成比例的损害。
Abstract
This paper studies how governments intervene in agricultural markets to reshape the economic consequences of climate extremes. We construct a global dataset of agricultural policies and extreme heat exposure by country and crop since 1980. Extreme heat shocks to domestic production lead to policies that assist consumers by lowering domestic food prices. This effect is persistent, primarily implemented via border policies, and stronger during election years. Shocks to foreign production induce the opposite response: policies that assist producers by raising prices. These findings can be rationalized by a model in which governments use agricultural policy to redistribute among domestic interest groups. Our estimates imply that policy responses shield domestic consumers, while exacerbating losses for domestic producers and foreign consumers. Policy responses have regressive consequences globally, disproportionately harming poor and heat‐exposed countries.