变暖世界中的粮食政策
Food Policy in a Warming World
Econometrica · 2026 · [{"name": "Allan Hsiao", "affiliation": ["Stanford University"]}, {"name": "Jacob Moscona", "affiliation": ["Massachusetts Institute of Technology"]}, {"name": "Karthik A. Sastry", "affiliation": ["Princeton University"]}]
中文摘要
本文研究政府如何干预农业市场以重塑气候极端事件的经济后果。我们构建了一个自 1980 年以来按国家和作物划分的全球农业政策与极端高温暴露数据集。当国内生产遭受极端高温冲击时，政府会采取降低国内食品价格、以帮助消费者的政策。这一效应具有持续性，主要通过边境政策实施，并且在选举年份更为强烈。国外生产遭受冲击则引发相反的反应：政府采取提高价格、以帮助生产者的政策。这些发现可以由一个模型加以合理化解释：在该模型中，政府利用农业政策在国内利益集团之间进行再分配。我们的估计表明，政策响应保护了国内消费者，同时加剧了国内生产者与国外消费者的损失。政策响应在全球范围内产生累退性后果，对贫困且暴露于高温的国家造成不成比例的损害。
Abstract
This paper studies how governments intervene in agricultural markets to reshape the economic consequences of climate extremes. We construct a global dataset of agricultural policies and extreme heat exposure by country and crop since 1980. Extreme heat shocks to domestic production lead to policies that assist consumers by lowering domestic food prices. This effect is persistent, primarily implemented via border policies, and stronger during election years. Shocks to foreign production induce the opposite response: policies that assist producers by raising prices. These findings can be rationalized by a model in which governments use agricultural policy to redistribute among domestic interest groups. Our estimates imply that policy responses shield domestic consumers, while exacerbating losses for domestic producers and foreign consumers. Policy responses have regressive consequences globally, disproportionately harming poor and heat‐exposed countries.