American Economic Review · 2021 · David Berger、Konstantin Milbradt、Fabrice Tourre、Joseph Vavra
中文摘要
美联储通过降息刺激经济的能力有多大？我们认为，固定利率、可提前还款抵押贷款中存在大量债务，这意味着通过降息刺激经济的能力不仅取决于利率的当前水平，还取决于其此前的路径。我们构建了一个抵押贷款提前还款的家庭模型，并将其与关于提前还款与利率激励之间关系的详细贷款层面证据相匹配，据此论证：近期的利率路径将为未来的货币刺激带来显著的逆风效应。（JEL E32, E43, E52, E58, G21, G51）
Abstract
How much ability does the Fed have to stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates? We argue that the presence of substantial debt in fixed-rate, prepayable mortgages means that the ability to stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates depends not just on their current level but also on their previous path. Using a household model of mortgage prepayment matched to detailed loan-level evidence on the relationship between prepayment and rate incentives, we argue that recent interest rate paths will generate substantial headwinds for future monetary stimuli. (JEL E32, E43, E52, E58, G21, G51)