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父母与兄弟姐妹入狱的效应:来自俄亥俄州的证据

The Effects of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio
American Economic Review · 2021 · Samuel Norris、Matthew Pecenco、Jeffrey Weaver

中文摘要

每年有数百万美国人经历家庭成员入狱。利用俄亥俄州30年的行政数据,并借助随机分配的法官在入狱倾向上的差异,本文提供了美国父母与兄弟姐妹入狱效应的首个准实验估计。父母入狱对儿童的某些重要结果产生了有益效应,使其入狱的可能性降低了4.9个百分点,并改善了其成年后的居住区质量。尽管关于学业表现和青少年生育的估计不精确,但我们排除了较大的正向或负向效应。兄弟姐妹入狱导致了犯罪活动的类似减少。

Abstract

Every year, millions of Americans experience the incarceration of a family member. Using 30 years of administrative data from Ohio and exploiting differing incarceration propensities of randomly assigned judges, this paper provides the first quasi-experimental estimates of the effects of parental and sibling incarceration in the United States. Parental incarceration has beneficial effects on some important outcomes for children, reducing their likelihood of incarceration by 4.9 percentage points and improving their adult neighborhood quality. While estimates on academic performance and teen parenthood are imprecise, we reject large positive or negative effects. Sibling incarceration leads to similar reductions in criminal activity. (JEL H76, J13, K42)
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