Review of Economic Studies · 2018 · Mirko Draca、Theodore Koutmeridis、Stephen J. Machin
中文摘要
在犯罪的经济模型中，个人会对犯罪机会潜在价值的变化做出反应。我们通过估算2002年至2012年间伦敦犯罪事件的详细数据中的犯罪-价格弹性来分析这一问题。我们利用的独特数据特征是，对报告的盗窃、抢劫和入室盗窃事件中被盗物品进行了详细分类。我们首先考虑一个涵盖犯罪事件中大多数被盗市场商品的消费品面板，并发现了统计显著的正价格弹性的证据。随后，我们研究了一类随着其全球价格上涨而近期急剧增加的特定犯罪，即与大宗商品相关的物品（珠宝、燃料和金属犯罪），当我们用全球大宗商品价格的外生变动为英国本地价格构造工具变量时，发现了相当大的弹性。最后，我们表明，从犯罪中获得的赃物价格的变化在解释近期的犯罪趋势方面发挥了作用。
Abstract
In economic models of crime individuals respond to changes in the potential value of criminal opportunities. We analyse this issue by estimating crime-price elasticities from detailed data on criminal incidents in London between 2002 and 2012. The unique data feature we exploit is a detailed classification of what goods were stolen in reported theft, robbery and burglary incidents. We first consider a panel of consumer goods covering the majority of market goods stolen in the crime incidents and find evidence of significant positive price elasticities. We then study a particular group of crimes that have risen sharply recently as world prices for them have risen, namely commodity related goods (jewellery, fuel and metal crimes), finding sizable elasticities when we instrument local UK prices by exogenous shifts in global commodity prices. Finally, we show that changes in the prices of loot from crime have played a role in explaining recent crime trends.