墨西哥遣返的劳动力市场效应：来自20世纪30年代的纵向证据

中文摘要

我们考察了1929至1934年间至少40万墨西哥人返回墨西哥的重大回流迁移事件对美国工人劳动力市场结果的影响。为识别因果效应，我们以1910年墨西哥社区规模及其与遣返成本代理变量的交互项作为县级墨西哥人口下降的工具变量。利用1930–1940年个体层面的关联人口普查数据，我们发现墨西哥遣返导致美国本地人的就业减少和职业降级。这些模式在低技能工人和城市地区的工人中更为显著。

Abstract

We examine the consequences of a significant return-migration episode, during which at least 400,000 Mexicans returned to Mexico between 1929 and 1934, on U.S. workers’ labor market outcomes. To identify a causal effect, we instrument the county-level drop in Mexican population with the size of the Mexican communities in 1910 and its interaction with proxies of repatriation costs. Using individual-level linked Census data from 1930–1940, we find that Mexican repatriations resulted in reduced employment and occupational downgrading for U.S. natives. These patterns were stronger for low-skilled workers and for workers in urban locations.