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基于地域的死亡率驱动因素:来自迁移的证据

Place-Based Drivers of Mortality: Evidence from Migration
American Economic Review · 2021 · Amy N. Finkelstein、Matthew Aaron Gentzkow、Heidi Williams

中文摘要

我们通过分析 Medicare 人群中迁移者的结果,估计当前居住地对老年死亡率的影响。我们控制了迁移者的来源地以及丰富的迁移前健康指标向量。我们还开发了一种新策略以调整剩余的不可观测因素,利用残差死亡率与迁移者来源地的相关性来评估遗漏变量的重要性。我们估计当前居住地具有实质性影响。从一个第10百分位的居住地迁移到第90百分位的居住地,将使65岁时的预期寿命增加1.1年,而均等化居住地效应将使预期寿命的截面变异减少15%。具有有利预期寿命效应的地方往往具有更高质量和数量的医疗保健、更温和的气候、较低的犯罪率以及较高的社会经济地位。

Abstract

We estimate the effect of current location on elderly mortality by analyzing outcomes of movers in the Medicare population. We control for movers' origin locations as well as a rich vector of pre-move health measures. We also develop a novel strategy to adjust for remaining unobservables, using the correlation of residual mortality with movers' origins to gauge the importance of omitted variables. We estimate substantial effects of current location. Moving from a 10th to a 90th percentile location would increase life expectancy at age 65 by 1.1 years, and equalizing location effects would reduce cross-sectional variation in life expectancy by 15 percent. Places with favorable life expectancy effects tend to have higher quality and quantity of health care, less extreme climates, lower crime rates, and higher socioeconomic status.
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