← ireadpaper · 顶刊中的公共政策研究

有组织犯罪、暴力与政治

Organized Crime, Violence, and Politics
Review of Economic Studies · 2018 · Alberto Alesina、Salvatore Piccolo、Paolo Pinotti

中文摘要

我们构建了一个模型,解释犯罪组织如何策略性地利用选举前暴力来影响选举结果和政治家行为。随后,我们刻画了在不同程度的选举竞争和不同选举规则下使用此类暴力的激励。我们的理论与西西里岛内部以及意大利各地区的经验证据相一致。具体而言,有组织犯罪的存在与选举前针对政治家的暴力异常激增相关——尤其当选举结果更具不确定性时——这进而减少了对犯罪组织所反对政党的投票。利用一个规模极大的议会辩论数据集,我们还表明,西西里黑手党的暴力行为减少了在西西里任命的议员——特别是来自传统上反对黑手党的政党的议员——的反黑手党努力。

Abstract

We develop a model explaining how criminal organizations strategically use pre-electoral violence as a way of influencing electoral results and politicians' behaviour.We then characterize the incentives to use such violence under different levels of electoral competition and different electoral rules.Our theory is consistent with the empirical evidence within Sicily and across Italian regions.Specifically, the presence of organized crime is associated with abnormal spikes in violence against politicians before elections-particularly when the electoral outcome is more uncertain-which in turn reduces voting for parties opposed by criminal organizations.Using a very large data set of parliamentary debates, we also show that violence by the Sicilian Mafia reduces anti-Mafia efforts by members of parliament appointed in Sicily, particularly from the parties that traditionally oppose the Mafia.
在 ireadpaper 查看全部 →