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通胀冲击是否具有累退性?一种可行集方法

Are Inflationary Shocks Regressive? A Feasible Set Approach
Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2025 · Felipe Del Canto、John L. Grigsby、Eric Qian、Conor J. Walsh

中文摘要

我们构建了一个框架,用以衡量宏观经济冲击在整个分布上的福利影响。冲击的一阶影响可由其引起的经济主体可行集的变动来概括,即预算约束和借贷约束的变动。我们将估计得到的脉冲响应函数与不同美国家庭的消费篮子、资产持有和劳动收入微观数据相结合。我们发现,引发通胀的石油冲击具有累退性,而货币扩张具有累进性,且在整个生命周期中存在较大的异质性。在所有情形下,主导渠道都是冲击对资产积累成本的影响,而非商品价格或劳动收入的变动。

Abstract

ABSTRACT We develop a framework to measure the welfare impact of macroeconomic shocks throughout the distribution. The first-order impact of a shock is summarized by the induced movements in agents’ feasible sets: their budget constraint and borrowing constraints. We combine estimated impulse response functions with micro-data on household consumption bundles, asset holdings, and labor income for different U.S. households. We find that inflationary oil shocks are regressive, but monetary expansions are progressive, and there is substantial heterogeneity throughout the life cycle. In all cases, the dominant channel is the effect of the shock on the cost of accumulating assets, not movements in goods prices or labor income.
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