Review of Economic Studies · 2026 · Christopher House、Christian Proebsting、Linda L. Tesar
中文摘要
欧元区国家之间的失业差异大于美国各州之间的失业差异。在这两个地区, 净迁移都会对失业差异做出反应, 尽管欧元区的反应幅度小于美国。我们使用一个包含跨境迁移的多国 DSGE 模型, 量化蒙代尔的假说, 即在货币联盟中劳动力流动可以替代独立货币政策。尽管不如独立货币政策有效, 但提高劳动力流动性确实降低了欧元区大多数国家的经济周期波动。然而, 蒙代尔的猜想并非普遍成立。对于主要面临需求冲击的国家, 劳动力流动稳定了通胀和失业, 并改善了福利; 但如果供给冲击占主导地位, 劳动力流动则会通过放大通胀波动而提高身处货币联盟的成本。
Abstract
Abstract Unemployment differentials are greater between countries in the euro area than between U.S. states. In both regions, net migration responds to unemployment differentials, though the response is smaller in the euro area compared to the U.S. We use a multi-country DSGE model with cross-border migration to quantify Mundell’s hypothesis that labour mobility could substitute for independent monetary policy in a currency union. While not as effective as independent monetary policy, increased labour mobility reduces business cycle fluctuations for most countries in the euro area. However, Mundell’s conjecture does not hold uniformly. For countries that primarily face demand shocks, labour mobility stabilizes inflation and unemployment and improves welfare. If supply shocks are dominant however, labour mobility increases the cost of being in a currency union by magnifying inflation volatility.