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无承诺下的最优财政政策:重访卢卡斯-斯托基

Optimal Fiscal Policy without Commitment: Revisiting Lucas-Stokey
Journal of Political Economy · 2021 · Davide Debortoli、Ricardo Nunes、Pierre Yared

中文摘要

根据卢卡斯-斯托基的结果,政府可以通过设计其债务期限结构来保证未来各届政府对最优财政政策的承诺。在本文中,我们推翻了这一结论,表明它在与卢卡斯-斯托基相同的模型和相同的时间一致性定义下通常并不成立。我们的论证基于一个被忽视的承诺问题的存在,而该问题无法通过债务期限结构来补救:未来的政府未必会在拉弗曲线峰值之上征税,即便事前这样做是最优的。

Abstract

According to the Lucas-Stokey result, a government can structure its debt maturity to guarantee commitment to optimal fiscal policy by future governments. In this paper, we overturn this conclusion, showing that it does not generally hold in the same model and under the same definition of time consistency as in Lucas-Stokey. Our argument rests on the existence of an overlooked commitment problem that cannot be remedied with debt maturity: a government in the future will not necessarily tax above the peak of the Laffer curve, even if it is ex ante optimal to do so.
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