两片草叶：绿色革命的影响

中文摘要

我们利用从高产作物品种（HYVs）中获益的时机与程度的外生异质性，估计了发展中国家绿色革命的影响。我们发现，在1965年至2010年间，HYVs使产量增加了44%，且通过投入品重新配置带来了进一步收益。更高的产量增加了收入并降低了人口增长。若绿色革命推迟10年，将使2010年的人均GDP（国内生产总值）降低17%，并使发展中国家人口增加2.23亿。45年间的累计GDP损失将达83万亿美元，相当于当前全球GDP的约一年总额。

Abstract

We estimate the impact of the Green Revolution in the developing world by exploiting exogenous heterogeneity in the timing and extent of the benefits derived from high-yielding crop varieties (HYVs). We find that HYVs increased yields by 44% between 1965 and 2010, with further gains coming through reallocation of inputs. Higher yields increased income and reduced population growth. A 10-year delay of the Green Revolution would in 2010 have cost 17% of GDP (gross domestic product) per capita and added 223 million people to the developing-world population. The cumulative GDP loss over 45 years would have been US$83 trillion, corresponding to approximately one year of current global GDP.