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时间利用与宏观经济不确定性

Time Use and Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Review of Economics and Statistics · 2024 · Matteo Cacciatore、Stefano Gnocchi、Daniela Hauser

中文摘要

我们研究不确定性对时间利用的影响及其宏观经济含义。利用美国时间利用调查和劳工统计局的数据,我们记录到不确定性上升会增加家务劳动并减少市场工作时间,对闲暇的影响较为温和。随后,我们提出了一个在定量上解释这些估计结果的模型。我们表明,市场工作与家务劳动之间的替代为家庭提供了自我保险,削弱了预防性动机。然而,这也减少了总需求,最终放大了不确定性的衰退性影响。时间再配置可能导致更高的通胀,特别是当不确定性与将时间利用重新导向家务劳动的政策(例如,封锁限制)相叠加时。

Abstract

Abstract We study the effects of uncertainty on time use and their macroeconomic implications. Employing data from the American Time Use Survey and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we document that heightened uncertainty increases housework and reduces market hours, mildly impacting leisure. We then propose a model that quantitatively accounts for these estimates. We show that substitution between market and housework provides self-insurance to households, weakening precautionary motives. However, it also reduces aggregate demand, ultimately amplifying uncertainty’s recessionary impact. Time reallocation can lead to higher inflation, particularly when uncertainty is coupled with policies redirecting time use towards housework (e.g., lockdown restrictions).
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