Review of Economic Studies · 2018 · Konrad Burchardi、Thomas Chaney、Tarek A. Hassan
中文摘要
我们利用美国长达130年的历史移民数据，表明美国各县的祖先构成对本地企业输出和接收的外商直接投资（FDI）具有因果效应。为分离祖先对FDI的因果效应，我们构建了一个简约式的移民模型：在给定时间，从某一外国向某一美国县的移民取决于（1）推动因素，即促成从该外国向整个美国移民的因素，以及（2）拉动因素，即促成从所有来源地向该美国县移民的因素。来源国特定推动因素的时间序列变异与目的地特定拉动因素之间的交互作用，产生了移民在美国各县之间配置的准随机变异。我们发现，相对于均值，具有某一特定外国祖先的居民数量翻倍，会使至少一家本地企业与该国开展FDI的概率提高4个百分点。我们提出的证据表明，这一效应主要由信息摩擦的减少所驱动，而非由更好的合同执行、偏好相似性或要素禀赋的趋同所驱动。
Abstract
Abstract We use 130 years of data on historical migrations to the U.S. to show a causal effect of the ancestry composition of U.S. counties on foreign direct investment (FDI) sent and received by local firms. To isolate the causal effect of ancestry on FDI, we build a simple reduced-form model of migrations: Migrations from a foreign country to a U.S. county at a given time depend on (1) a push factor, causing emigration from that foreign country to the entire U.S., and (2) a pull factor, causing immigration from all origins into that U.S. county. The interaction between time-series variation in origin-specific push factors and destination-specific pull factors generates quasi-random variation in the allocation of migrants across U.S. counties. We find that doubling the number of residents with ancestry from a given foreign country relative to the mean increases the probability that at least one local firm engages in FDI with that country by 4 percentage points. We present evidence that this effect is primarily driven by a reduction in information frictions, and not by better contract enforcement, taste similarities, or a convergence in factor endowments.